A decade after the UK entered into a rushed referendum that divided the country and caused disorder, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and electorate drifted into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two respected commentators from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially fraught and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can arise suddenly and can build support very quickly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The pair have examined the political, economic and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the topic with a roadshow of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everybody, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose results have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an highly polarised community where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the those successful lack clarity precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue that moment is approaching, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and unionists minimise the prospect, making it uncertain if and when there will be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has hidden the shortage of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has taken place in scholarly circles but scarcely any government figures or activists seek to involve themselves with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, neither author advocates unification or the existing arrangement. Both composes two essays that seek neutrality in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering financial and societal statistics, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Arguments encompass national emblems, taxes, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The goal is to inform and stimulate conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there is still lacking a debate," said the writer. "Dialogue suggests an recognition of the idea that there may exist reasonable perspectives on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters report they support unity but reject greater financial contributions or adopting a new flag to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government should work out what the proposal from nationalist groups is beyond just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride considers a referendum in his era is possible and that it could happen suddenly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a poor or a negligent official who says: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, valid arguments, he said. "One side will prevail on this issue and somebody will eventually lose but all factions has got important lessons to gain from the alternative viewpoints."
Request for Wider Debate
Westminster needed to engage with the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish issue."
